Abstract
The National Water Model (NWM) provides continental-scale streamflow predictions but exhibits bias and reduced skill in highly regulated and snow-driven basins. In contrast, River Forecast Center (RFC) models incorporate decades of local calibration and regulatory knowledge but are limited in spatial coverage to specific points of interest. This study evaluates whether hydrologic knowledge embedded in RFC-calibrated simulations can be transferred to improve NWM performance at unmonitored locations using the Streamflow Analysis for Bias Estimation and Reduction (SABER) framework. Using Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) simulations as surrogate reference data, we applied SABER to the NWM 44-year retrospective model simulation across the Colorado River Basin. We regionalized bias-correction parameters using standardized flow-duration curves and watershed clustering. Model performance was assessed at 84 CBRFC-modeled locations using bootstrap validation. Performance was evaluated with KGE, NSE, ME, MAE, and RMSE. Results indicate that SABER improves NWM performance relative to the CBRFC reference. Median KGE increased from -0.02 to 0.78, median NSE improved from -0.98 to 0.63, and median Mean Error decreased from 44 cfs to 0 cfs. Overall, SABER demonstrated effective transfer of CBRFC calibrated hydrologic knowledge to unmonitored reaches, improving NWM performance while identifying remaining limitations in the underlying model. This approach provides a scalable pathway for integrating regional operational expertise, such as often existing in RFC models, into large-scale hydrologic modeling systems.
Degree
MS
College and Department
Ira A. Fulton College of Engineering; Civil and Construction Engineering
Rights
https://lib.byu.edu/about/copyright/
BYU ScholarsArchive Citation
Mathews, Ian, "Leveraging River Forecast Center Knowledge to Improve Large-Scale Hydrologic Model Performance Through Bias Correction" (2026). Theses and Dissertations. 11164.
https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/11164
Date Submitted
2026-04-13
Document Type
Thesis
Permanent Link
https://arks.lib.byu.edu/ark:/34234/q2248be05f
Keywords
bias correction, SABER, national water model, NWM, river forecast center, Colorado basin, surrogate gauge, hydrologic modeling, CBRFC
Language
english