Author Date

2025-07-30

Degree Name

BS

Department

Finance

College

Marriott School of Management

Defense Date

2025-06-26

Publication Date

2025-07-30

First Faculty Advisor

Benjamin Iverson

First Faculty Reader

Bronson Argyle

Honors Coordinator

James Brau

Keywords

Mergers & Acquisitions, Finance, Energy, M&A, Macroeconomics

Abstract

This thesis investigates the relationship between commodity market conditions, macroeconomic forces, and M&A activity in the U.S. energy sector. Using a combination of Bloomberg futures data from 2016–2025, and equity performance data for acquisitive firms and broader sector and market index ETFs, I identify “potential merger wave” periods—characterized by elevated price volatility and trading volume—and examine their connection to transaction frequency and postdeal performance. I find that M&A activity tends to spike in or shortly after these waves, with acquisitive firms earning stronger short-term returns when announcing deals during such periods, but stronger 1-year returns when deals are announced outside them. The thesis also evaluates structural valuation changes in energy equities post-COVID, identifying shifts in the explanatory power of key macroeconomic variables like the Federal Funds Rate, high-yield spreads, and PPI Energy. These findings suggest a post-pandemic evolution in how markets price risk and reward in the energy sector.

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