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Stochastic simulation, dam process, behavior analysis


Probabilistic considerations have been practiced in determining the capacity of a dam after the introduction of probability theory of dams by P. A. P. Moran (1954). Various researchers determined the capacity by using stationary distribution of the dam content, mean of the first emptiness time, and by specifying the probability of overflow of a dam. In this study, after highlighting the methods used by the design engineers using probabilistic consideration at various stages of the process, capacity has been determined by using the probability of emptiness and overflow simultaneously. As an example, riverflow data of Mitta Mitta River of Australia has been considered. The data was available only for a short period of time. So long inflow sequences have been generated by keeping intact the statistical properties of the historical data, and then determined the capacity.