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Publication Date

2018

Abstract

Watershed scale models are preferred to quantify long-term impacts of various land use decisions. Numerous models are available for carrying out land use change analyses, however, there are uncertainties associated with the simulation modeling system. Uncertainty in parameters is inevitable and has to be assessed before reporting modeled results to stakeholders. Parameter uncertainty analyses have been carried out in the past for different land use conditions. However, very few studies have been conducted on the parameter uncertainty analysis for biofuel crops. The production of biofuel crops is increasing since 2007 mainly because of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. Out of various methods available for carrying out the uncertainty analysis, the GLUE methodology integrated in SWAT-CUP was used in this study to carry out the parameter uncertainty analysis of simulated streamflow and water quality for switchgrass production in the L’Anguille River watershed (LRW). CN2, GWQMN, and CH_K2 were ranked as most uncertain parameters for the simulated flow. SPEXP was ranked as the most uncertain parameter for the simulated sediments. NPERCO was ranked as the most uncertain parameter for the simulated nitrate-nitrogen.

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