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Publication Date

2018

Keywords

data generation, climatic behavior, statistical downscaling, climate scenario, greenhouse gases

Abstract

Long-term forecast of climatic variables to be informed about changes as well as considering necessary requirements to balance consequences due to climate change has been considered by researchers and climatologists. LARS-WG is a model downscaling the outputs of GCM models. In the present research, to generate the amount of daily rainfall, radiation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures have been employed in four stations under present and future climatic conditions. In the research, the capability of LARS-WG model to simulate data observed in four stations of Ahwaz, Dezfoul, Shahr-e-Kord, and Yasouj was evaluated. After ensuring about appropriate performance of the model, the changes of average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, and average rainfall during 2011-2030, compared to the base period (1970-2000), in three scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 in the mentioned stations have been forecasted. The research findings revealed the high accuracy of LARS-WG model in the mentioned parameters’ simulation. Additionally, according to the obtained results, it is predicated that in the period of 2011-2030, the average of the minimum temperature in this basin under the scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 is increased 0.78°C, 0.94°C and 0.75 °C compared to the base period (1970-2000). Further, the average of the maximum temperature of the basin under the scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 is increased 0.73°C, 0.91°C and 0.72 °C compared to the base period (1970-2000). Finally, the average rainfall in the basin under the scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 is increased 3.4%°C, 3.3%°C and 3.1% °C, respectively.

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