Keywords

adaptation pathways, IAMM, land-use

Start Date

26-6-2018 10:40 AM

End Date

26-6-2018 12:00 PM

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Meta Models (IAMM) are often used to evaluate policy options in model-based approaches for designing adaptation pathways. Frequently, however, the dynamics of land-use are treated as an exogenous factor. In reality, co-evolutionary interactions exist between the water system and land-use decisions. Changes in the water system may alter the suitability of some areas for certain types of land-use, while land-use changes affect the performance of the water system.

This study uses the hypothetical Waas case, used before in developing model-based adaptation pathways. We endogenise the land-use dynamics by employing a utility-based land-use change model. The land-use change model is integrated with the IAMM in a loosely-coupled and bidirectional manner by performing a dynamic state exchange between the models. In particular, every ten years, flooding events from the IAMM are recorded and evaluated in the land-use change model. Flooding events change the suitability of affected areas for specific land-use types, in turn altering future land-use patterns. We use this extended version of the Waas model to develop adaptation pathways. We find three implications of endogenising land-use dynamics: it (i) increases the number of possible policy options to be evaluated, (ii) broadens the types of outcomes that can be evaluated, and (iii) changes the performance of the policy options and the resulting adaptation pathways. This study suggests that endogenising land-use dynamics in model-based pathways designs is important to capture the emergent behaviour caused by climate pressures and to apprehend a wider perspective on the impacts of climate change.

Stream and Session

F2: Model-based Support for Designing Adaptive Policy Pathways

COinS
 
Jun 26th, 10:40 AM Jun 26th, 12:00 PM

How does endogenising land-use dynamics into an integrated assessment meta model affect the design of model-based adaptation pathways?

Integrated Assessment Meta Models (IAMM) are often used to evaluate policy options in model-based approaches for designing adaptation pathways. Frequently, however, the dynamics of land-use are treated as an exogenous factor. In reality, co-evolutionary interactions exist between the water system and land-use decisions. Changes in the water system may alter the suitability of some areas for certain types of land-use, while land-use changes affect the performance of the water system.

This study uses the hypothetical Waas case, used before in developing model-based adaptation pathways. We endogenise the land-use dynamics by employing a utility-based land-use change model. The land-use change model is integrated with the IAMM in a loosely-coupled and bidirectional manner by performing a dynamic state exchange between the models. In particular, every ten years, flooding events from the IAMM are recorded and evaluated in the land-use change model. Flooding events change the suitability of affected areas for specific land-use types, in turn altering future land-use patterns. We use this extended version of the Waas model to develop adaptation pathways. We find three implications of endogenising land-use dynamics: it (i) increases the number of possible policy options to be evaluated, (ii) broadens the types of outcomes that can be evaluated, and (iii) changes the performance of the policy options and the resulting adaptation pathways. This study suggests that endogenising land-use dynamics in model-based pathways designs is important to capture the emergent behaviour caused by climate pressures and to apprehend a wider perspective on the impacts of climate change.