Keywords

Data driven modelling, Water level forecast, Magdalena River

Start Date

26-6-2018 9:00 AM

End Date

26-6-2018 10:20 AM

Abstract

The Magdalena River is the most important river in Colombia. It has a length of 1,500km, drains a catchment of 257,000km2 and is home to 38 million people. Magdalena River is the largest navigable corridor of Colombia and with respect to flood risk, Magdalena River is one of the major sources of damage in Colombia. The Magdalena River Research Center has conducted the Program for Magdalena River Modelling to improve their understanding of the river system. Within this modelling program, because of the uncertainty in cross sections, 2D DEM, as well as the zero level of the gauging stations and rating curves the only confident measurement is the relative water level, and in order to help the decision makers in risk management and river navigation a three-day extended data driven forecast model for water levels in the stations of Puerto Salgar, Puerto Inmarco, Puerto Berrio, Barrancabermeja, Puerto Wilches, San Pablo, Gamarra and El Banco was developed implementing an Adaptive Operator. The forecast can be accessed through an open access web site that can be used by all actors, users and managers of river resources. Three different objective metrics were used to show how the data driven forecast model for the river levels performs accurately and give different acceptance criteria for the expert who has the responsibility to make the decision of approve or not the forecast results.

Stream and Session

Stream F: System Identification Approaches for Complex Environmental Systems

F1: Understanding User Uncertainty in Complex modelling

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Jun 26th, 9:00 AM Jun 26th, 10:20 AM

Water Level Forecast in Magdalena River. A data driven Model.

The Magdalena River is the most important river in Colombia. It has a length of 1,500km, drains a catchment of 257,000km2 and is home to 38 million people. Magdalena River is the largest navigable corridor of Colombia and with respect to flood risk, Magdalena River is one of the major sources of damage in Colombia. The Magdalena River Research Center has conducted the Program for Magdalena River Modelling to improve their understanding of the river system. Within this modelling program, because of the uncertainty in cross sections, 2D DEM, as well as the zero level of the gauging stations and rating curves the only confident measurement is the relative water level, and in order to help the decision makers in risk management and river navigation a three-day extended data driven forecast model for water levels in the stations of Puerto Salgar, Puerto Inmarco, Puerto Berrio, Barrancabermeja, Puerto Wilches, San Pablo, Gamarra and El Banco was developed implementing an Adaptive Operator. The forecast can be accessed through an open access web site that can be used by all actors, users and managers of river resources. Three different objective metrics were used to show how the data driven forecast model for the river levels performs accurately and give different acceptance criteria for the expert who has the responsibility to make the decision of approve or not the forecast results.