Socio-Ecological Modeling for guiding water management: Application of the ENVISION framework for the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin

Surface water resources in semi-arid watersheds are extremely vulnerable to changing climate conditions and demographic growth. The vulnerability is highest in basins with high stresses on water resources such as the transboundary Rio Grande/Bravo basin (RGB), shared by the United States and Mexico. Designing sustainable management responses for such systems calls for a better understanding of complex human-environment interactions and the exploration of alternative futures. We present a spatio-temporal simulation model that has been developed for the whole RGB basin to capture and explore the interplay between water and land resources management strategies and vegetation dynamics. We used the ENVISION multi-paradigm modeling framework, combining a hydrologic model, a GIS land-use model, and an empirical multi-agent model. Model calibration is based on secondary datasets and in-depth stakeholder interviews conducted by environmental anthropologists. Preliminary outcomes include a first implementation of ENVISION’s Flow module, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model simulating surface water hydrology and daily stream discharge. We also designed a database of management strategies used to model behaviors of actors in the RGB basin. This database documents traditional and innovative practices, their potential impacts, and their social and spatial constraints. In this talk, we will discuss ENVISION’s abilities to model social and ecological interactions in large watersheds and at multiple spatial and temporal scales, as well as some trade-offs of this framework. Future simulations will be conducted to assess the outcomes of alternative strategies under scenarios of climate and demographic changes and help us to discover ways to foster a more resilient RGB system.