Paper/Poster/Presentation Title
Keywords
Bayesian networks, Perception graphs, transdisciplinarity, forest, water
Start Date
28-6-2018 9:00 AM
End Date
28-6-2018 10:20 AM
Abstract
The social-ecological system riparian forests in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan) exemplifies wicked problems in the water-food-energy nexus. These forests depend on rivers, i.e. distance to groundwater and flooding, which have been drastically overused for upstream irrigation of agriculture. The local population uses riparian forests also for food products (nuts, berries, birds, grazing) and wood as energy source for cooking and heating. Continuing anthropogenic pressure could possibly shift the ecosystem functions and services towards an ecological tipping point, whose transgression will result in irreversible changes of the ecosystem and in degradation of the forests as well as in related socio-economic impacts. Still, basic knowledge about tipping points is lacking, including definition, quantitative and qualitative characterization and useful indicators. Also it is yet unknown whether there is at all a tipping point in the system of riparian forests or rather a perturbation of a linear response to anthropogenic pressures occurs. Therefore, the objective of the study is to integrate interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary knowledge to understand if and when riparian forests reach a tipping point and deduct appropriate management strategies. This will be done using environmental modelling (actor networks with perception graphs and Bayesian network modelling). Our interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research (TDR) approach involves the integration of knowledge from non-academic actors (e.g. forest and water administration, NGOs and developing organizations) and from an interdisciplinary scientists team consisting of plant ecologists, biogeographers, remote sensing specialists, hydrologists, socio-economists, anthropologists and scientists working on transdisciplinary methods. The project has currently passed the co-design phase of 1 year. In this study, we will present (1) how such a TDR process can be set up within one year and (2) the results of perception graphs as a basis for identifying, describing and framing wicked problems in riparian forests in Central Asia.
How to set up a transdisciplinary project for managing the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in riparian forests in Central Asia.
The social-ecological system riparian forests in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan) exemplifies wicked problems in the water-food-energy nexus. These forests depend on rivers, i.e. distance to groundwater and flooding, which have been drastically overused for upstream irrigation of agriculture. The local population uses riparian forests also for food products (nuts, berries, birds, grazing) and wood as energy source for cooking and heating. Continuing anthropogenic pressure could possibly shift the ecosystem functions and services towards an ecological tipping point, whose transgression will result in irreversible changes of the ecosystem and in degradation of the forests as well as in related socio-economic impacts. Still, basic knowledge about tipping points is lacking, including definition, quantitative and qualitative characterization and useful indicators. Also it is yet unknown whether there is at all a tipping point in the system of riparian forests or rather a perturbation of a linear response to anthropogenic pressures occurs. Therefore, the objective of the study is to integrate interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary knowledge to understand if and when riparian forests reach a tipping point and deduct appropriate management strategies. This will be done using environmental modelling (actor networks with perception graphs and Bayesian network modelling). Our interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research (TDR) approach involves the integration of knowledge from non-academic actors (e.g. forest and water administration, NGOs and developing organizations) and from an interdisciplinary scientists team consisting of plant ecologists, biogeographers, remote sensing specialists, hydrologists, socio-economists, anthropologists and scientists working on transdisciplinary methods. The project has currently passed the co-design phase of 1 year. In this study, we will present (1) how such a TDR process can be set up within one year and (2) the results of perception graphs as a basis for identifying, describing and framing wicked problems in riparian forests in Central Asia.
Stream and Session
Stream C: Integrated Social, Economic, Ecological, and Infrastructural Modeling
C14: Towards Interdisciplinary and Transdisciplinary Collaboration in Environmental Modelling: Innovative Practices to Address Wicked Problems