Paper/Poster/Presentation Title

Stochastic Modeling of Urban Resilience

Keywords

systems dynamics, stochastic shocks, water supply, management, adaptive capacity

Start Date

25-6-2018 10:40 AM

End Date

25-6-2018 12:00 PM

Abstract

The dynamics of critical urban infrastructure services is the outcome of the capacity of the infrastructure system to deliver natural resources, as managed by utilities and other management entities. This includes the supply of citizens with food, energy and water as built and managed by multiple, interdependent, critical infrastructure systems (physical infrastructure), and operated by socio- economic institutions. Urban institutions use financial and political capitals to build robust infrastructure, and maintain it to provide reliable and cost-effective critical services. Urban households cope with regular variations in supply of critical services, and adapt to overcoming “surprise” service deficits resulting from shocks. Urban resilience therefore emerges from the dynamics of five capitals [sensu stocks and flows] that comprise Natural resources (N); Infrastructure (I); Financial resources (F); Management Power (P); and Community Adaptive Capacity (A). We present a coupled systems model in which temporal dynamics of service deficits and adaptive capacity co-evolve in response to a series of stochastic chronic and acute disturbances, revealing resilience regimes (no deficit; partial deficit; high deficit; collapse). We compiled data on the five capitals for several cities around the world, representing several urban archetypes. We used these data to quantify the interplay among these five capitals contributing to maintaining urban resilience. Model simulations of urban dynamics identified different characteristic stability regimes in these archetype cities, and show that imbalances in urban capital portfolios tends to drive urban systems towards rigidity and poverty “traps”.

Stream and Session

C4: Building Urban Resilience of Coupled Infrastructure Systems

Share

COinS
 
Jun 25th, 10:40 AM Jun 25th, 12:00 PM

Stochastic Modeling of Urban Resilience

The dynamics of critical urban infrastructure services is the outcome of the capacity of the infrastructure system to deliver natural resources, as managed by utilities and other management entities. This includes the supply of citizens with food, energy and water as built and managed by multiple, interdependent, critical infrastructure systems (physical infrastructure), and operated by socio- economic institutions. Urban institutions use financial and political capitals to build robust infrastructure, and maintain it to provide reliable and cost-effective critical services. Urban households cope with regular variations in supply of critical services, and adapt to overcoming “surprise” service deficits resulting from shocks. Urban resilience therefore emerges from the dynamics of five capitals [sensu stocks and flows] that comprise Natural resources (N); Infrastructure (I); Financial resources (F); Management Power (P); and Community Adaptive Capacity (A). We present a coupled systems model in which temporal dynamics of service deficits and adaptive capacity co-evolve in response to a series of stochastic chronic and acute disturbances, revealing resilience regimes (no deficit; partial deficit; high deficit; collapse). We compiled data on the five capitals for several cities around the world, representing several urban archetypes. We used these data to quantify the interplay among these five capitals contributing to maintaining urban resilience. Model simulations of urban dynamics identified different characteristic stability regimes in these archetype cities, and show that imbalances in urban capital portfolios tends to drive urban systems towards rigidity and poverty “traps”.