Keywords

integrated environmental stressors; earth observations; predicting dengue fever; open socio-environmental modelling

Start Date

27-6-2018 9:00 AM

End Date

27-6-2018 10:20 AM

Abstract

Dengue fever occurs in 141 countries with 122,000 cases reported in Vietnam in 2016. The epidemiological situation there has been worsened by the failure of health systems to maintain adequate control of the species of mosquito that spread dengue. Several studies have emphasised the significant links between weather variability and infectious diseases, highlighting the potential for developing early warning systems for epidemics. The same methods could also be used to forecast outbreaks of zika, which has recently begun to be reported in Vietnam.

This presentation describes the results of a study, supported by the UK Space Agency, resulting in a high-level method for integrating multiple stressors such as water availability, land-use and climate predictions in order to forecast future outbreaks of dengue and zika. Earth observation data can help countries understand the dynamics of these integrated stressors on the health and water sectors, especially in regions with poor or non-existent ground monitoring. However, the associated evidence base is only just emerging and applying this work using remote sensing data is expected to make a significant contribution. The resultant tools will be used to understand changing health risks at different scales under future climate change scenarios and will also include a water assessment module that will feature the additional benefit of improving water management in Vietnam’s transboundary river basins. This multidisciplinary application of open socio-environmental modelling also extends to on-the-ground practitioners tasked with acting upon the predictions in a way that will best mitigate the risks.

Stream and Session

Stream A: Advanced Methods and Approaches in Environmental Computing

Session A2: Open Socio-environmental Modelling and Simulation

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Jun 27th, 9:00 AM Jun 27th, 10:20 AM

Formulation of an approach for integrating Earth observations, climate forecasting and land-surface modelling in order to predict outbreaks of Dengue fever and Zika virus in Vietnam

Dengue fever occurs in 141 countries with 122,000 cases reported in Vietnam in 2016. The epidemiological situation there has been worsened by the failure of health systems to maintain adequate control of the species of mosquito that spread dengue. Several studies have emphasised the significant links between weather variability and infectious diseases, highlighting the potential for developing early warning systems for epidemics. The same methods could also be used to forecast outbreaks of zika, which has recently begun to be reported in Vietnam.

This presentation describes the results of a study, supported by the UK Space Agency, resulting in a high-level method for integrating multiple stressors such as water availability, land-use and climate predictions in order to forecast future outbreaks of dengue and zika. Earth observation data can help countries understand the dynamics of these integrated stressors on the health and water sectors, especially in regions with poor or non-existent ground monitoring. However, the associated evidence base is only just emerging and applying this work using remote sensing data is expected to make a significant contribution. The resultant tools will be used to understand changing health risks at different scales under future climate change scenarios and will also include a water assessment module that will feature the additional benefit of improving water management in Vietnam’s transboundary river basins. This multidisciplinary application of open socio-environmental modelling also extends to on-the-ground practitioners tasked with acting upon the predictions in a way that will best mitigate the risks.