Water quality risk simulation of Laoguanhe River based on uncertainty

Session H2: Water Resources Management and Planning - Modeling and Software for Improving Decisions and Engaging Stakeholders

Laoguanhe River as the nearest upstream tributary of Danjiangkou Reservoir to the Taocha diversion main canal in South-to-North Water Diversion Project, its water quality changes will directly affect the water quality level of the project. This study is intended to provide the scientific support for the comprehensive water environment risk assessment and provide the optimization decision-making basis for the water environment management of Laoguanhe River. This research used the QUAL2Kw model to simulate the water quality of Laoguanhe river form sandaohe section to downstream section. And then the calibrated model is used to calculate the water quality risk with Markov process. The Latin Hypercube Sampling is used to improve the flow input of QUAL2Kw and the simulation results are used to analyze the water quality risk for 2012. According to the simulation results, the water quality in the downstream section can satisfy the II class which is the basic requirement for the river export to the Danjingkou Reservoir.