Potential Response of Soil-Borne Fungal Pathogens Affecting Crops to a Scenario of Climate Change in Europe

A study was carried out on the potential response of soil-borne pathogens causing crop yield losses under a climate change scenario in Europe. A controlled chamber set of experiments was carried out to quantify pathogen response to temperature using pure colonies of three soil-borne fungi, representative of low (Fusarium nivale), medium-high (Athelia rolfsii) and high (Macrophomina phaseolina) temperature requirements. A generic model to simulate fungal growth response to temperature based on these experiments was developed and linked to a soil temperature model component, and to components to simulate soil water content accounting for crop water uptake of potential hosts. Pathogens relative growth was simulated over Europe using the IPCC A1B emission scenario as realization of the Hadley-CM3 global climate model, available from the European Commission and processed for use with biophysical models. The simulations resulting from using the time span centred on 2030 were compared to the baseline, centred on the year 2000, using a sample of 30 years of daily weather. The general trend of soil-borne pathogens response to the scenario of climate change is a relative increase in growth in colder areas of Europe, as a function of their temperature requirements. Projections of F. nivale in the future indicate a relative increase of this winter pathogen of wheat in Northern European countries. A. rolfsii and M. phaseolina, two soil-borne pathogens typical of warmer agricultural areas, could find more favourable conditions in areas of the Central Europe, but they differentiated in Southern Europe where A. rolfsii resulted affected by summer soil temperatures above optimum.