Combining participatory approaches and modelling: lessons from two practical cases of policy support

In this paper two different policy exercises carried out with the METRONAMICA land use modelling framework are discussed. The first aims at finding suitable locations for the expansion of residential and business activities in Utrecht Province, the Netherlands. It takes into consideration future economic and demographic developments as well as all other land use claims in the province. The second was carried out as part of the EEA-PRELUDE project and aimed at exploring the impacts of different scenarios on land use developments and the state of the environment in Europe. Both exercises are similar in combining a participatory approach with modelling in interactive stakeholder sessions. Both aim at integrating the opinions, visions and data from different actors and sectors to present an integrated view of the future. However, they differ in the type of scenarios dealt with. The first is very much an exercise in practical planning exploring the impacts of possible zoning regulations under conditions of varying socioeconomic growth. The second allows for the creation of very different scenarios by a diverse group of stakeholders featuring more extreme events. For both exercises the model represents the current processes causing land use change and combines them with future trends captured in the scenarios with a view to present potential future developments in the use of land as well as the social, economic, and ecological qualities of the spatial system. The paper concludes with lessons learned relative to the use of METRONAMICA in support of policy-making: the appropriateness of the framework for combining participatory approaches and modelling, the difficulties encountered and benefits experienced in combining both, and, recommendations for future work.