Experience with a System Dynamics model in a prospective study on the future impact of ICT on environmental sustainability

To assess the potential impact of ICT on environmental sustainability in the European Union within a time horizon until 2020, we developed a System Dynamics model. In our contribution we make a critical, retrospective evaluation of the model with regard to the requirements and expectations of the project commissioners and of experts involved in the modeling and simulation process. The issues addressed are problem adequacy, validity, transparency, communicability and receptivity of the model. We conclude that modeling approaches that better support a modular model design than System Dynamics does would lead to better results regarding these requirements, and that a modeling language based on a more domain-specific ontology than System Dynamics would be needed to create models that are communicable and have an adequate epistemic connectivity to the scientific and political discourse.