Simple Method for Using Precomputed Hydrologic Models in Flood Forecasting with Uniform Rainfall and Soil Moisture Pattern
floods, hydrologic models, stochastic models, hydrographs
Transforming a weather forecast into a flood hydrograph for a watershed requires a series of steps: (1) gathering and pre-processing data about the current conditions of the watershed, such as soil moisture, snow cover, etc.; (2) creating or modifying a hydrologic model; (3) running the model; and (4) assessing the results. Adequately performing all these steps in a short period of time as a major storm is approaching is in many cases extremely difficult. In this paper the authors present a method that enables performing the steps 2, 3, and 4, in advance of a flooding crisis by determining a large set of potential “scenarios” (combination of parameters), running a model for each, and storing the results. The researchers analyze a way to create the scenarios so to maximize the uniformity of their distribution on the parameters space. They present a simple technique to retrieve the stored result that best matches the current conditions. The authors illustrate this method in a test case, for which seven model parameters were selected and more than 2,000 scenarios were generated and pre-computed.
Original Publication Citation
Dolder, H.,Jones, N., andNelson, E.(2015). "Simple Method for Using Precomputed Hydrologic Models in Flood Forecasting with Uniform Rainfall and Soil Moisture Pattern."J. Hydrol. Eng
BYU ScholarsArchive Citation
Dolder, Herman Guillermo; Jones, Norman L.; and Nelson, E. James, "Simple Method for Using Precomputed Hydrologic Models in Flood Forecasting with Uniform Rainfall and Soil Moisture Pattern" (2015). Faculty Publications. 4278.
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Ira A. Fulton College of Engineering and Technology
Civil and Environmental Engineering
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers
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