Pre-election polls are used to test the political landscape and predict election results. The relative weights for the state-level data from the 2006 U.S. senatorial races are considered based on the date on which the polls were conducted. Long- and short-memory weight functions are developed to specify the relative value of historical polling data. An optimal weight function is estimated by minimizing the discrepancy function between estimates from weighted polls and the election outcomes.
College and Department
Physical and Mathematical Sciences; Statistics
BYU ScholarsArchive Citation
Johnson, Gregory K., "The Optimal Weighting of Pre-Election Polling Data" (2008). Theses and Dissertations. 1377.
pre-election polling data, long- and short-memory weight functions