Keywords

Grassland; Evaluation; Intercomparison; Modelling

Location

Session H8: New Challenges for Agricultural Systems Modeling and Software

Start Date

17-6-2014 9:00 AM

End Date

17-6-2014 10:20 AM

Abstract

The grassland model intercomparison of the FACCE MACSUR knowledge hub involves nine modelling approaches. Grassland-specific approaches (AnnuGrow, PaSim, SPACSYS) were compared to the approaches mainly conceived to simulate crops (ARMOSA, EPIC, STICS) and biomes (Biome- BGC MuSo, CARAIB, LPJmL). The model intercomparison exercise is run over nine grassland sites across Europe and peri-Mediterranean regions where data were collected from at least five up to 31 years, with focus on biomass production and carbon exchanges. The protocol for model intercomparison, derived from Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, includes sensitivity tests, as well as blind and calibrated simulations. A fuzzy logic-based indicator for model assessment was developed to provide insights into agreement between simulations and observations, complexity of model structure and robustness of simulation results over a variety of conditions. Some results are illustrated, which show the limitations of the models run with current parameterization to simulate grassland dry matter and C exchanges across the Euro-Mediterranean region. The study also suggests that the regional calibration can accommodate model discrepancies. However, areas in the model structures have been identified that require further improvements to reduce uncertainties and increase reliability of model results in impact studies.

 
Jun 17th, 9:00 AM Jun 17th, 10:20 AM

The grassland model intercomparison of the MACSUR (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security) European knowledge hub

Session H8: New Challenges for Agricultural Systems Modeling and Software

The grassland model intercomparison of the FACCE MACSUR knowledge hub involves nine modelling approaches. Grassland-specific approaches (AnnuGrow, PaSim, SPACSYS) were compared to the approaches mainly conceived to simulate crops (ARMOSA, EPIC, STICS) and biomes (Biome- BGC MuSo, CARAIB, LPJmL). The model intercomparison exercise is run over nine grassland sites across Europe and peri-Mediterranean regions where data were collected from at least five up to 31 years, with focus on biomass production and carbon exchanges. The protocol for model intercomparison, derived from Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, includes sensitivity tests, as well as blind and calibrated simulations. A fuzzy logic-based indicator for model assessment was developed to provide insights into agreement between simulations and observations, complexity of model structure and robustness of simulation results over a variety of conditions. Some results are illustrated, which show the limitations of the models run with current parameterization to simulate grassland dry matter and C exchanges across the Euro-Mediterranean region. The study also suggests that the regional calibration can accommodate model discrepancies. However, areas in the model structures have been identified that require further improvements to reduce uncertainties and increase reliability of model results in impact studies.