Keywords

Land-use modelling; Urban system; Scenario analysis; Demographic change, Urban pattern, Ecosystem services.

Location

Session G1: Using Simulation Models to Improve Understanding of Environmental Systems

Start Date

16-6-2014 3:40 PM

End Date

16-6-2014 5:20 PM

Description

For the conservation as well as the improvement in life quality of human beings, today’s political decision makers are challenged to tackle the complex interactions between human activities and the natural environment. In order to better understanding these interactions, we applied a well- validated land-use change model that integrates demographic and residential dynamics, including a preference-driven choice algorithm to enable the simulation of simultaneously occurring growth and shrinkage processes. We introduce 13 scenarios that combine different assumptions based on demographic and economic development, residential preferences, short-range transit accessibility preferences and planning restrictions. They are applied to test the respective effects on multiple system parameters, such as living space consumption, land-use change, urban pattern change and multiple ecosystem service change. The varying scenario results reveal many consistent and system- wide developments and interdependencies, such as the increase of living space, even under population decline due to a decrease in household size that is strongly related to population aging and residential area increase which results in loss of ecosystem services. Especially the increase of elderly people, expedited by population shrinkage, showed to be very effective towards urban (ecosystem) change; whereas preference shifts encouraging reurbanization was related with positive effects, being amplified under urban shrinkage.

 
Jun 16th, 3:40 PM Jun 16th, 5:20 PM

Uncovering urban system interrelations using land-use scenario modelling

Session G1: Using Simulation Models to Improve Understanding of Environmental Systems

For the conservation as well as the improvement in life quality of human beings, today’s political decision makers are challenged to tackle the complex interactions between human activities and the natural environment. In order to better understanding these interactions, we applied a well- validated land-use change model that integrates demographic and residential dynamics, including a preference-driven choice algorithm to enable the simulation of simultaneously occurring growth and shrinkage processes. We introduce 13 scenarios that combine different assumptions based on demographic and economic development, residential preferences, short-range transit accessibility preferences and planning restrictions. They are applied to test the respective effects on multiple system parameters, such as living space consumption, land-use change, urban pattern change and multiple ecosystem service change. The varying scenario results reveal many consistent and system- wide developments and interdependencies, such as the increase of living space, even under population decline due to a decrease in household size that is strongly related to population aging and residential area increase which results in loss of ecosystem services. Especially the increase of elderly people, expedited by population shrinkage, showed to be very effective towards urban (ecosystem) change; whereas preference shifts encouraging reurbanization was related with positive effects, being amplified under urban shrinkage.