Collaborative modelling of the interdependence of mitigation, adaptation and development

Managing the interdependence of climate mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development requires a good understanding of the dominant socio-ecological processes that have determined the pathways in the past. In a collaborative modelling exercise with the environmental administration from Mexico and the spatial planning centre from Indonesia, we are developing two country-specific system dynamic models to describe the most relevant processes with respect to balancing mitigation, adaptation and development. In a first workshop in November 2011 interested stakeholders from the ministries were introduced to the method and relevant sectors have been identified. In an iterative process, key variables, the interdependencies between the variables and the resulting dynamics will be discussed and tested with respect to the ability to reproduce past dynamics. We will report about the experience in this ongoing process and present the current state of the resulting dynamic model along with first, preliminary results. We will also present some of the feedback from the participants in the Ministries with respect to the applicability of the resulting model.