Adaptation Strategies for New Zealand Dairy Farms under Climate Change Scenarios

Assessments of climate change for New Zealand indicate not only increasing average temperatures but also more climatic variability with moderate to high likelihood of increases in the frequency of extreme events such as droughts and floods. Detailed Whole Farm Model simulations of climate change impacts and potential adaptation options were undertaken for five representative, pasture based dairy farms located in the major dairying regions of New Zealand. First, tactical changes to current management practices were considered, followed by three strategic adaptations that introduced larger changes into the farming system: a reduction in intensity, the introduction of irrigation and an alternative pasture species. The analysis established that these adaptation options provide both benefits and management challenges across the different regions and climate years were identified. The insights and limitations of this modelling study are discussed in the context of climate change adaptation using New Zealand dairy farms as examples; further research directions are also identified.