Monitoring the effects of human activities and environmental change on a population system

The monitoring and analysis of the processes taking place in an ecosystem is a key issue for a sustainable human activity. A system of populations, as the biotic component of a complex ecosystem is usually affected by the variation of its abiotic environment. Even in nearly natural ecosystems an abiotic effect like climatic implications of global warming may cause important changes in the dynamics of the population system. In ecosystems involving field cultivation or any industrial activity, the abiotic parameter in question may be the concentration of a substance, changing e.g. as a result of pollution, application of a pesticide or a fertilizer, etc. In many cases the observation of the densities of each population may be technically complicated or expensive, therefore the question arises whether from the observation of the densities of certain (indicator) populations, the whole state process of the population system can be uniquely recovered. The paper is aimed at a methodological development of state monitoring, under the conditions of a changing environment. It is shown, how the technique of mathematical systems theory can be applied not only for the approximate calculation of the state process on the basis of the observed data, even under the effect of an exogene abiotic change with known dynamics; but in certain cases, also for the estimation of the unknown biological effect of the change of an abiotic parameter. The proposed methodology is applied to simple illustrative examples concerning a three-species predator-prey system.