Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies


family size, political centrism


Suggesting that voting might be correlated with the number of children voters have has been rare but not unheard of in the last decade. In a 2004 article for American Conservative, Steve Sailer noted a correlation between states with higher birth rates among white voters and the support for incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. Sailer recognized that Bush won the nineteen states with the highest white fertility while Senator John Kerry won the sixteen with the lowest (2004). He also suggested that the lifestyle preferences of white, conservative parents might be to blame for the apparent Republican tilt among states with higher birth rates. A similar trend occurred again in 2012 when majorities in every state with fertility rates higher than 70 per 1,000 women went to Mitt Romney, while all states with fertility rates below 60 per 1,000 women went to Barack Obama (Sandler 2012). While more editorial than academic, the simple correlations identified between high fertility states and support for the Republican presidential candidate and lower fertility states and support for the Democratic candidate was an abnormality that has not received additional scrutiny.