electricity supply, hydropower reservoir operation, maximum and minimum flexibility


The main goal of the current research is to quantify hydropower generation flexibility in a system of ten multi-objective reservoirs on the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). At a given time step, the flexibility in electricity supply (F(t)) is defined as the remaining capacity after satisfying the scheduled production plan. The scheduled production plan includes the sum of future electricity demand and existing obligatory electricity sales resulting from open market sales of electricity. The time-varying flexibility metric is expressed in energy units (MWh). Estimating the flexibility helps the energy producers to address potential negative shocks in energy supply (e.g., due to shocks in wind/solar energy or increased regulatory constraints). To quantify the flexibility, we use a hydraulic routing model to simulate the maximum capacity in energy production at any given time period, given the initial (e.g., current) forebay elevation level in the reservoirs and conditioning on the operational and regulatory constraints. The maximum hydropower generation capacity depends on the given inflows. In this study, we defined the maximum and minimum flexibility, and tested the proposed framework on a ten reservoir system on the Columbia River in the Pacific North-West in the USA.