An Analysis of State-level Economic Conditions and Presidential Elections, 1960-2004

Authors

Melanie Freeze, Brigham Young University
Dr. Jeremy Clayne Pope, Brigham Young University

Keywords

state-level economic conditions, presidential elections, presidential candidates

College

Family, Home, and Social Sciences

Department

Political Science

Abstract

Voters look to the economy when evaluating incumbent presidential candidates. For example, the record high inflation, interest rates, and unemployment during Carter’s first term in office are said to have contributed to his defeat in the 1980 presidential elections. The significance of the economy was so large in the 1992 presidential election one campaign strategist bluntly stated, “It’s the economy, stupid.” While national economic factors have always been clearly connected to presidential campaigns, relatively little research exists that examines the role state economies play in determining state-level presidential returns. My research primarily sought to understand whether national or state economic conditions have a stronger influence on the state-level outcomes of presidential elections.

Recommended Citation

Freeze, Melanie and Pope, Dr. Jeremy Clayne (2013) "An Analysis of State-level Economic Conditions and Presidential Elections, 1960-2004," Journal of Undergraduate Research: Vol. 2013: Iss. 1, Article 398.
Available at: https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/jur/vol2013/iss1/398