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Stochastic models, monthly discharge, Maroon River of Iran


River flow forecasting constitutes one of the most important applications in hydrology. Several techniques and methods can be used in planning, design and management of water resources system. A stochastic model is one these techniques that formed based on time series. Maroon River is one of the most important rivers in Iran, therefore estimation of its discharge with appropriate models is important. Idnak Hydrometric station on the Maroon River with 41 years (1967 to 2009) of observed stream flow data was selected to for study. In these research stochastic models is fitted to monthly discharge. After performance of necessary tests, MPAR(3) model with the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz information criterion (SIC) has been selected as suitable model among different stochastic models. Therefore MPAR (3) model was used for monthly generation of time series.