|Thursday, September 17th|
Yang Chen, University of Twente, Netherlands
10:20 AM - 10:40 AM
Viticultural landscapes not only produce grapes and wine but also provide many other important ecosystem services such as an aesthetic landscape and habit for pest-control species. However, many European vineyards are intensely managed, including high use of pesticides and often bare inter-rows, reducing biodiversity and increasing the risk of soil erosion. Winegrowers take decisions based on the complex relationships between, for example, pesticide use and its impacts on pests as well as their natural enemies, or vegetation in the inter-rows competing for water but providing habitat for natural enemies. To explore future scenarios leading to more effective agri-environmental policies and planning, we develop spatially explicit agent-based models on winegrowers taking decisions on pesticide use and inter-row management. In these models, winegrowers’ decisions influence ecosystem services, which in turn affect future decisions. In this study, we conducted surveys in viticultural landscapes in Austria, France, Germany, Romania, and Spain to better understand the heterogeneity in winegrowers’ behavior and driving factors behind their behavior. We used the survey outcomes to develop a generalized agent-based model that can be applied to all these landscapes. This generalized model, i) reflects commonalities across our European study areas regarding winegrowers’ decision making on pesticide use and inter-row management; ii) includes feedback processes between economic, ecological, and social factors; and iii) uses climate change and policy interventions to simulate vineyard management scenarios. Using a cross-European generalized model means that landscape-specific characteristics are not taken into account. We argue that generalized models like ours have a use for discussing and exploring large scale agri-environmental policies, while location-specific heterogeneities should be considered for planning purposes. The local climate, edaphic, and social-economic factors may significantly affect viticultural decision-making, requiring locally-adapted models. We will develop these in the next step, based on the generalized model.
Frederik Priem, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
10:40 AM - 11:00 AM
Traffic congestion and urban sprawl are pervasive in the regions of Flanders and Brussels, causing damage to health, economy and nature. Due to the severity of the situation, urban densification strategies, aimed at reducing future land take, have recently become an important topic of public debate in Belgium. At present, there is still much uncertainty regarding the possible impact of proposed policy measures, or lack thereof, on future residential patterns and on the physical urban environment. Such information is key however to (1) assess alternative policy proposals and (2) to develop implementation strategies on various levels of governance once a regional plan has been approved. For our case-study, we designed 2 contrasting urban planning scenarios, called Business As Usual (BAU) and Sustainable development (SUS), for Brussels and the province of Flemish Brabant. BAU represents a status quo scenario whereas SUS aims for considerable yet achievable densification around public transport and service hubs. A spatial microsimulation framework is proposed to simulate residential dynamics of different household segments up to 2040 for both scenarios. This information is in turn combined with economic projections to define local demand for surface sealing, an important measure for many urban ecosystem service indicators. All projections are produced on census tract level. Finally, a quantitative state Cellular Automata modelling framework is used to simulate changes in impervious surface cover at the level of 30m cells. All models are validated for the timeframe between the last Belgian Censuses of 2001 and 2011. The research shows how integrated modelling approaches combined with transparent scenario analysis can contribute to a better-informed debate on sustainable urban development.
Magalie Técher, LIFAM, ENSA Montpellier, Laboratoire Innovation Formes Architectures Milieux, Ã‰cole Nationale SupÃ©rieure dâ€™Architecture de M, France
11:00 AM - 11:20 AM
In France, more than 80% of the population lives in urban areas and this figure has not stopped growing in recent years. This inevitably results in a major urban expansion which is accompanied on the one hand by a significant increase in urban temperatures better known as the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and on the other hand, by significant pollution due to the concentration of anthropogenic activities. Faced with climate change, urban areas are becoming more vulnerable, they are facing global warming and marine submersion. Weather events and intense heat waves are more and more frequent and cause safety and comfort problems for the population. In response to these challenges, urban planning policies that allow the management and governance of territories are today considered as a major lever for adapting to climatic phenomena and changing lifestyles. The objective of this work is to develop a policy support tool allowing the evaluation of French urban planning policies on urban form and their impacts on energy and climatic phenomena. This tool will highlight the various institutional action levers likely to reduce the effects of the urban heat island and improve energy efficiency in the context of climate change. This work, currently being developed as part of a PHD thesis, is functional at the scale of the Montpellier Méditerranée Métropole and consists of a multi-scale simulation of territorial development following a regulatory approach. Following the orientations and rules contained in various French urban planning documents (SCOT, PLU), the approach consists of a coupling of models (urban growth model, urban planning model and dynamic thermal model) in order to produce 2D and 3D environments allowing a simulation of urban form. This coupling will allow to simulate the interaction between urban planning documents and their impacts on urban energy and climate phenomena in order to refine the decision process.
Dani Broitman, Technion - Israel Inst. of T., Israel
11:20 AM - 11:40 AM
While extensive research is dedicated to the assessment of ecosystem services at global and regional levels, considerably less effort is invested in the local level analysis of ecosystem services in urban areas. In a world where more than half of the population already live in cities, the management of urban locally provided ecosystem services (ULPES) is a pressing need. ULPES management represents both a great opportunity and a complex challenge. Land use allocation within urban areas and in their immediate periphery is the main factor behind the quality and quantity of ULPES available for their inhabitants. Since this is one of the areas of responsibility of the local government, it has a great opportunity to improve ULPES. However, the coexistence of different land uses in peri-urban areas is a well-known planning and managerial challenge: explicit analyses of the boundaries, interfaces, and mutual influences between different land uses are lacking. In turn, the quality and quantity of ULPES available in a certain place depend on the local specific land use configuration. This research suggests a method to explicitly quantify the spatial extent of the interfaces between different land uses, their edge effects, and the assessment of their associated ULPES. Using Dutch detailed geographical data, we study the evolution of the boundaries between residential, nature and agricultural land uses, their resulting interface areas and part of their associated ULPES. Our test case focuses on two types of services provided by “green” land uses (protected natural areas, agricultural zones, and parks). Recreational services available to nearby dwellers are used as an example of ecosystem services relevant at the local level, while carbon sequestration exemplifies the category of ecosystem services that are globally relevant. The share of the population and the extent of the geographical areas potentially affected by ULPES are large, but dispersed, calling for detailed tailor-made spatial planning tools at local levels. We also show that the distinction between both types of ecosystem services is useful for policy-making purposes: quantification of locally-provided services is well suited for spatial planning in general and urban planning in particular, but globally-relevant services assessment is more informative at national and supranational levels.
Paul Wagner, Kiel University, Germany
11:40 AM - 12:00 PM
Even though land use and hydrology are closely related, the modelling communities of both disciplines are widely separated. Whereas hydrologic models sometimes use land use model predictions, land use models rarely incorporated modelled hydrologic variables. However, we were able to show that the integration of modelled dynamic land use change in a hydrologic model and of modelled spatially distributed hydrologic variables in a land use model, improved model predictions for a rapidly urbanizing meso-scale catchment in India. By establishing a bi-directional link between the two models on an annual basis, we aim at taking feedback effects between land use and hydrology into account as well as at making more consistent predictions. The coupling of the two models allows for a better representation of spatial dynamics and management decisions during a model run. If, for example, agricultural areas repeatedly suffer from water stress that leads to crop failure, they may be abandoned, particularly, if there is competition for land due to rapid urbanization. By implementing a water stress based abandonment of agricultural areas, we are able to analyse spatial effects of possible future scenarios, e.g. the future use of these areas or a shift of agriculture to more suitable locations. In particular, we are testing the sensitivity of the coupled model with regard to different climate and land use change scenarios as well as with regard to management decisions (e.g. the water stress threshold for abandonment). Our results shed light on the importance of feedback effects between land use and hydrology to accurately and consistently assess impacts of global change on land and water resources.
Anna Msigwa, Vrije Universiteit Brussel , VUB &The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology (NM-AIST)
12:20 PM - 12:40 PM
Water is becoming increasingly scarce resource worldwide, with agriculture being the most important consumer of water. Water consumption can be estimated by measuring evapotranspiration from remote sensing data. For water management purposes, it is essential to know how much of the evapotranspiration comes from rainfall (green water) or irrigation practices (blue water). In this study, we aim at evaluating several methods that aim at separating the blue and green water fluxes from evapotranspiration (ET) data for different Land Use Land Cover (LULC) classes of the Kikuletwa Catchment in Tanzania. Ensemble ET from seven global RS-based surface energy balance models: ETMonitor, GLEM, CMRS-ET, SSEBop, ALEXI, SEBS and MOD16 was used together with rainfall dataset CHIRPS as input to estimate blue and green water from total ET. We compared yearly blue water estimates from four different methods: ET-P (Senay et al., 2016), ET-Effective rainfall (Eekelen et al., 2015), the Budyko model and Soil Water Balance (SWB) method. The results show that all the methods have different spatial distribution of blue and green water. While three methods show forested areas to have highest blue water, SWB shows less blue water in the forested area but higher blue water in irrigated banana and coffee. Budyko method does not show a good agreement with other methods for all the LULC classes. The blue water estimates are higher than other methods. The data and methods presented in this study would provide guidance to water resource managers and planners of Pangani river basin in Tanzania supporting efficient planning, accounting and management of water use for agriculture taking into consideration that other LULC classes depend on the blue water.
Tomas Crols, VITO, Belgium
12:40 PM - 1:00 PM
Effective strategic regional planning requires both a capability for forecasting the future state of the system under business as usual conditions, and an ability to test the effect of possible infrastructure developments and policy interventions on the system. We use a comprehensive simulation platform designed to support strategic spatial planning by modelling the long-term spatial dynamics of land use, population, and economic activity. It is being used to evaluate planning and policy options for containing urban sprawl and enhancing environmental quality. Most applications have been to Flanders, Belgium, where it is known as the RuimteModel. Here we describe an extension designed to improve simulations of future land use/cover and activity patterns, and to give additional indicators useful to spatial planners and policy makers in mobility. The extension, the Mobility Module, deals with changes in travel times, modal split, and flow volumes driven by changes in the location of population, employment, and other activities as calculated in the core model. Since the Mobility Module is integrated with the original RuimteModel, it also provides feedback from changed travel times, modal split, and flows to show their impact on the location of the various activities and the associated land use/land cover patterns, as well as their impact on environmental quality. Although the Mobility Module deals with modal split, traffic volume, and travel speed on network links, it is not a full transportation model. Rather it emulates in a computationally efficient way the results of such a model. Early results show that incorporating the Mobility Module in the RuimteModel results in significant changes in land use and activity patterns. In particular, residential development tends to be more dispersed. This result has clear implications for the efficacy of several anti-sprawl policies being considered by the Flemish government, and consequently for the attainment of spatial-environmental goals.
Richard Hewitt, James Hutton Institute, Observatorio para una Cultura del Territorio
1:00 PM - 1:20 PM
Current estimates suggest that the world is on track for ~3°C of heating relative to pre-industrial levels by 2100. This is likely to bring great disruption to earth systems, leading to increased natural hazard risks, crop failures, civil unrest and population migration. There is, however, a high degree of uncertainty about the impacts that such events may have on land use and ecosystems in individual countries. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) of scenarios like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) offers one way to address this uncertainty, allowing outcomes such as the relative land cover under food production or forestry to be compared for each scenario. However, global and continental-scale IAMs need to be complemented by landscape scale spatial modelling to inform national and regional policy making. In this paper, we demonstrate impacts and trade-offs of future land cover change in Scotland, a UK region with a high degree of political autonomy, using downscaled SSPs from Europe to the national and finally the regional level. Our methods integrate participatory knowledge co-construction approaches with land-use modelling. Firstly, a stakeholder workshop held in November 2018 led to the development of detailed narratives for 5 UK SSPs. Two contrasting UK SSPs, SSP1 (Sustainability), and SSP5 (Fossil-Fuelled Development) were then adapted to the case of Scotland and simulated to the year 2040 using a land use change model (APoLUS). Land use demands for each scenario were quantified based on historical tendencies, narrative information derived from the workshop, and future Scottish Government targets. Results highlight trade-offs between forest cover, grasslands, natural areas including marginal peatlands important for carbon sequestration, and cropland for food production and the drinks industry. We discuss these preliminary findings, highlight key areas of uncertainty and present pathways for future work.