Paper/Poster/Presentation Title

Using local knowledge to model land-sea systems

Presenter/Author Information

Jean-Luc De Kok, VITO, Belgium

Keywords

fuzzy cognitive maps; coastal; land-sea interactions; rural development; blue growth; system dynamics

Start Date

15-9-2020 1:40 PM

End Date

15-9-2020 2:00 PM

Abstract

Existing research still primarily addresses coastal systems from either a land- or sea-based perspective, making policies based on that research ill-adapted to support effective land-sea integration at the local, regional and macro-regional scale. As a result, rural and coastal development does not yet fully benefit from the synergetic opportunities for economic development. The aim of the H2020 project COASTAL (https://h2020-coastal.eu) is to identify these opportunities by improved understanding of the social-environmental land-sea interactions. To this end coastal and rural stakeholders interact with environmental and social researchers in six Multi-Actor Labs in the EU Territory to create mind maps. Next, the stakeholders assign weights to the interactions in the mind maps to translate these into Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) which are used to set up policy and business scenarios. FCMs are directed, causal graphs that can be used to describe the dynamic feedback behaviour of systems of varying complexity and help bridge the gap between qualitative and quantitative knowledge. FCMs are semi-quantitative and take a position in between purely qualitative, conceptual models and quantitative system dynamics models using a mathematical representation of the system, potentially including time delays. The step-wise iteration of the model and analysis of the resulting changes can help understand the role of system feedbacks and effectiveness of management options under different scenarios. However, policy scenarios generated with FCMs cannot be interpreted well as time is not explicitly included. Examples of the COASTAL project are used to demonstrate the potential and limitations of FCMs for supporting stakeholder engagements.

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Sep 15th, 1:40 PM Sep 15th, 2:00 PM

Using local knowledge to model land-sea systems

Existing research still primarily addresses coastal systems from either a land- or sea-based perspective, making policies based on that research ill-adapted to support effective land-sea integration at the local, regional and macro-regional scale. As a result, rural and coastal development does not yet fully benefit from the synergetic opportunities for economic development. The aim of the H2020 project COASTAL (https://h2020-coastal.eu) is to identify these opportunities by improved understanding of the social-environmental land-sea interactions. To this end coastal and rural stakeholders interact with environmental and social researchers in six Multi-Actor Labs in the EU Territory to create mind maps. Next, the stakeholders assign weights to the interactions in the mind maps to translate these into Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) which are used to set up policy and business scenarios. FCMs are directed, causal graphs that can be used to describe the dynamic feedback behaviour of systems of varying complexity and help bridge the gap between qualitative and quantitative knowledge. FCMs are semi-quantitative and take a position in between purely qualitative, conceptual models and quantitative system dynamics models using a mathematical representation of the system, potentially including time delays. The step-wise iteration of the model and analysis of the resulting changes can help understand the role of system feedbacks and effectiveness of management options under different scenarios. However, policy scenarios generated with FCMs cannot be interpreted well as time is not explicitly included. Examples of the COASTAL project are used to demonstrate the potential and limitations of FCMs for supporting stakeholder engagements.