Abstract

As patterns of precipitation and evapotranspiration change, human water security and aquatic ecosystem health depend on understanding how catchment characteristics interact with climate to control river flow. We tested factors that mediate sensitivity of river flow to fluctuations in climate using a set of 1,148 data-rich, climate diverse catchments in various parts of the world from 2001-2020. We extrapolated these results to an additional 2,012 catchments with sparser data. Using features such as vegetation, land use, hydrology, and local climate, we found that catchments with high aridity to runoff ratios (Fuh's parameter) had 380% higher runoff sensitivity to fluctuations in precipitation and evapotranspiration. Conversely, having >5% deciduous broadleaf forest cover was associated with a 31% decrease in runoff sensitivity to precipitation. Less forest cover and higher Fuh's parameter values were strongly associated with deficits in water budgets, highlighting that these catchments are most vulnerable to changes in long-term storage.

Degree

College and Department

Computational, Mathematical, and Physical Sciences; Computer Science

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