Keywords

climate mitigation; Integrated Assessment; system dynamics; trade and environment conflict; win-win solution

Location

Session A4: Modelling for Low Carbon Economies

Start Date

13-7-2016 11:50 AM

End Date

13-7-2016 12:10 PM

Description

The actor-based system dynamics approach to Integrated Assessment modelling (IAM), seen as further development of ‘traditional’ system dynamics economic modelling, however with a stronger emphasis on describing the decision making of key aggregate economics actors, is a promising methodology for developing the comprehensive IAMs of next generations. The present paper is focused on application of actor-based system dynamics models to identification and assessment of win-win opportunities of climate mitigation policies. Modelling results outlined suggest that in a multi-country world properly designed climate mitigation policies can unite rather than divide different nations, therefore putting under question the ‘juggernaut’ of much discussed free-rider problem, and reframing the climate mitigation problem into a positive forerunner perspective. At the same time, improperly designed policies might pose serious obstacles to climate forerunners. Trade and climate/environment conflicts (particularly related to Chinese solar panels) are discussed as recent negative real-world examples of this kind. A stylized “solar panel conflict” model developed within actor-based system dynamics modelling approach is presented to simulate the dynamics of production under alternative scenarios of conflict resolution. Preliminary modelling results provided suggest that protectionist measures adopted in real-world trade and environment conflicts are not the best solutions even from ‘pragmatic’ viewpoint of protecting the domestic producers from ‘competitive disadvantage’, to say nothing about reaching the climate/environmental protection targets.

 
Jul 13th, 11:50 AM Jul 13th, 12:10 PM

Actor-Based System Dynamics Modelling of Win-Win Climate Mitigation Options

Session A4: Modelling for Low Carbon Economies

The actor-based system dynamics approach to Integrated Assessment modelling (IAM), seen as further development of ‘traditional’ system dynamics economic modelling, however with a stronger emphasis on describing the decision making of key aggregate economics actors, is a promising methodology for developing the comprehensive IAMs of next generations. The present paper is focused on application of actor-based system dynamics models to identification and assessment of win-win opportunities of climate mitigation policies. Modelling results outlined suggest that in a multi-country world properly designed climate mitigation policies can unite rather than divide different nations, therefore putting under question the ‘juggernaut’ of much discussed free-rider problem, and reframing the climate mitigation problem into a positive forerunner perspective. At the same time, improperly designed policies might pose serious obstacles to climate forerunners. Trade and climate/environment conflicts (particularly related to Chinese solar panels) are discussed as recent negative real-world examples of this kind. A stylized “solar panel conflict” model developed within actor-based system dynamics modelling approach is presented to simulate the dynamics of production under alternative scenarios of conflict resolution. Preliminary modelling results provided suggest that protectionist measures adopted in real-world trade and environment conflicts are not the best solutions even from ‘pragmatic’ viewpoint of protecting the domestic producers from ‘competitive disadvantage’, to say nothing about reaching the climate/environmental protection targets.