Keywords

Agent-based model; Residential mobility; Economy and employment; Oil and gas industry; Spatially-explicit; Empirically-based

Location

Session A4: Modelling for Low Carbon Economies

Start Date

13-7-2016 2:30 PM

End Date

13-7-2016 3:20 PM

Description

The economy of Aberdeen, UK is heavily concentrated in the North Sea oil and gas industry. Until recently, it had enjoyed steady economic growth and low unemployment rate. However, since the oil price plummeted in the end of 2014, the local economy has been through tremendous turmoil. This paper develops an agent-based model of the economic, social and urban systems of Aberdeen to study the impact of economic conditions on residential mobility and urban energy footprint. We develop a dynamic and spatially-explicit agent-based model that covers four important aspects of life: economy and employment, housing, transport and social infrastructure. Through modelling the interconnectedness and interactions between the different aspects, we are able to capture not only the direct effect of the crises in oil and gas sector, but also the indirect rippled effect on the other industries and sectors, the population growth and migration, the geographic distribution of residences and business, and the transport and social infrastructure. The results of the model can be used to inform policy decisions in tackling crisis, as well as in managing low carbon sustainable economy under different economic conditions.

 
Jul 13th, 2:30 PM Jul 13th, 3:20 PM

Modelling lifestyle and energy footprint in Europe’s “oil capital” using an agent-based model

Session A4: Modelling for Low Carbon Economies

The economy of Aberdeen, UK is heavily concentrated in the North Sea oil and gas industry. Until recently, it had enjoyed steady economic growth and low unemployment rate. However, since the oil price plummeted in the end of 2014, the local economy has been through tremendous turmoil. This paper develops an agent-based model of the economic, social and urban systems of Aberdeen to study the impact of economic conditions on residential mobility and urban energy footprint. We develop a dynamic and spatially-explicit agent-based model that covers four important aspects of life: economy and employment, housing, transport and social infrastructure. Through modelling the interconnectedness and interactions between the different aspects, we are able to capture not only the direct effect of the crises in oil and gas sector, but also the indirect rippled effect on the other industries and sectors, the population growth and migration, the geographic distribution of residences and business, and the transport and social infrastructure. The results of the model can be used to inform policy decisions in tackling crisis, as well as in managing low carbon sustainable economy under different economic conditions.