Keywords

Integrated modeling; Scenarios; Network economics; Oceanic basin

Location

Session H5: Systems Modeling and Climate Change: A systematic Methodology for Disentangling Elements of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity

Start Date

17-6-2014 9:00 AM

End Date

17-6-2014 10:20 AM

Description

Oceans stand under double exposure to global warming and of economic globalization. This generates anxieties and contributes to the need for specific governance. A first expression lies in the needs for integrated representations allowing a collaborative development of scenarios. Main challenge here lies in finding, in these representations, a balance between realism and abstraction admissible by all participants.

In this talk, we present modeling framework that has been designed to build scenarios about the possible futures of an oceanic basin. The principle lies in using a network model in which nodes correspond to fish stocks, specialized fleets, farming systems, trade systems, markets, and links correspond to the exchange of fish and fish commodities. It allows the integration of biological processes, such as the effects of changing habitats upon fish stocks, and economic processes, such as the increase of demand for fish.

Contrasted scenarios for the next forty years the North Atlantic basin have been developed in this modeling framework.

 
Jun 17th, 9:00 AM Jun 17th, 10:20 AM

A modeling framework for oceanic basins under double exposure

Session H5: Systems Modeling and Climate Change: A systematic Methodology for Disentangling Elements of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity

Oceans stand under double exposure to global warming and of economic globalization. This generates anxieties and contributes to the need for specific governance. A first expression lies in the needs for integrated representations allowing a collaborative development of scenarios. Main challenge here lies in finding, in these representations, a balance between realism and abstraction admissible by all participants.

In this talk, we present modeling framework that has been designed to build scenarios about the possible futures of an oceanic basin. The principle lies in using a network model in which nodes correspond to fish stocks, specialized fleets, farming systems, trade systems, markets, and links correspond to the exchange of fish and fish commodities. It allows the integration of biological processes, such as the effects of changing habitats upon fish stocks, and economic processes, such as the increase of demand for fish.

Contrasted scenarios for the next forty years the North Atlantic basin have been developed in this modeling framework.