Keywords

Agricultural adaptation; climate change; Flathead Valley, Montana

Location

Session H5: Systems Modeling and Climate Change: A Systematic Methodology for Disentangling Elements of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity

Start Date

16-6-2014 10:40 AM

End Date

16-6-2014 12:00 PM

Description

Future climate change has the potential to adversely impact crop production. This study evaluates the potential impacts of future climate change on crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income and the extent to which two forms of adaptation--flexible scheduling of field operations and crop irrigation--alleviate potential negative impacts of climate change on crop production and income in the Flathead Valley of Montana, USA during the evaluation period 2006-2050. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two common soil types. Without adaptation, average crop yields during the evaluation period are between 7% and 48% lower than in the period 1960-2005. Flexible scheduling of field operations does not appear to be an economically efficient form of adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns. Using irrigation causes crop yields to increase for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns to increase for canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no irrigation. Average crop enterprise net return in the evaluation period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with flexible scheduling of field operations and crop irrigation. Therefore, both forms of adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop production and income in the Flathead Valley.

 
Jun 16th, 10:40 AM Jun 16th, 12:00 PM

Vulnerability and adaptation of crop production to future climate change: a case study for representative farms in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA

Session H5: Systems Modeling and Climate Change: A Systematic Methodology for Disentangling Elements of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity

Future climate change has the potential to adversely impact crop production. This study evaluates the potential impacts of future climate change on crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income and the extent to which two forms of adaptation--flexible scheduling of field operations and crop irrigation--alleviate potential negative impacts of climate change on crop production and income in the Flathead Valley of Montana, USA during the evaluation period 2006-2050. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two common soil types. Without adaptation, average crop yields during the evaluation period are between 7% and 48% lower than in the period 1960-2005. Flexible scheduling of field operations does not appear to be an economically efficient form of adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns. Using irrigation causes crop yields to increase for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns to increase for canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no irrigation. Average crop enterprise net return in the evaluation period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with flexible scheduling of field operations and crop irrigation. Therefore, both forms of adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop production and income in the Flathead Valley.