Keywords

ELECTRE-III, non-compensatory, MCDM, structural, non-structural, flood management.

Location

Session H2: Water Resources Management and Planning - Modeling and Software for Improving Dcisions and Engaging Stakeholders

Start Date

17-6-2014 3:40 PM

End Date

17-6-2014 5:20 PM

Description

Flood management alternatives are investigated based on sustainable development criteria (SDC) by using a non-compensatory multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model, ELECTRE- III, to reduce flood damage in a study reach of the Gorganrood River in Golestan Province, north of Iran. The selection of optimal alternative of flood management is a multi-objective issue and thus using MCDM models becomes necessary. Considering the physical, social and economic conditions of the region, a set of structural and non-structural alternatives is proposed for the flood management in the study reach of the Gorganrood River. To model sustainable development, 11 criteria are proposed for decisions regarding flood management considering benefits to future generation. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the effect of uncertainty in thresholds and ratings of alternatives. The results show that a non-compensatory MCDM model is appropriate to incorporate social, economic and environmental criteria for the ranking of flood management alternatives. In addition, ranking alternatives is sensitive to changes in the weights of criteria. Nevertheless, in spite of sensitive weights, the best alternative remained unchanged. The optimal decision achieves an integrated alternative of flood warning system and flood insurance based on the sustainable development concept.

 
Jun 17th, 3:40 PM Jun 17th, 5:20 PM

Multicriteria Decision-Making for Flood Management Based on Sustainable Development Criteria

Session H2: Water Resources Management and Planning - Modeling and Software for Improving Dcisions and Engaging Stakeholders

Flood management alternatives are investigated based on sustainable development criteria (SDC) by using a non-compensatory multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model, ELECTRE- III, to reduce flood damage in a study reach of the Gorganrood River in Golestan Province, north of Iran. The selection of optimal alternative of flood management is a multi-objective issue and thus using MCDM models becomes necessary. Considering the physical, social and economic conditions of the region, a set of structural and non-structural alternatives is proposed for the flood management in the study reach of the Gorganrood River. To model sustainable development, 11 criteria are proposed for decisions regarding flood management considering benefits to future generation. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the effect of uncertainty in thresholds and ratings of alternatives. The results show that a non-compensatory MCDM model is appropriate to incorporate social, economic and environmental criteria for the ranking of flood management alternatives. In addition, ranking alternatives is sensitive to changes in the weights of criteria. Nevertheless, in spite of sensitive weights, the best alternative remained unchanged. The optimal decision achieves an integrated alternative of flood warning system and flood insurance based on the sustainable development concept.