Keywords

water resources vulnerability; assessment; climate change; Haihe River Basin; improved set pair analysis.

Location

Session H2: Water Resources Management and Planning - Modeling and Software for Improving Dcisions and Engaging Stakeholders

Start Date

17-6-2014 2:00 PM

End Date

17-6-2014 3:20 PM

Abstract

Water resource system is a complex uncertain system under climate change. To assess the water resources vulnerability rationally, an improved set pair analysis (ISPA) model, is established, in which set pair analysis theory is introduced and the weights are determined by use of the maximum entropy principle and the improved analytic hierarchy process method. And the index systems and criteria of water resources vulnerability assessment are established in this study. Uncertainties are analyzed in the assessment of water resource vulnerability by use of the ISPA model. ISPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability of seven administrative divisions in the Haihe River Basin under four kinds of future climate scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of water resource vulnerability is calculated by connection numbers in the ISPA model. Results show that ISPA model can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain knowledge, subjective and objective information compared with fuzzy assessment model and artificial neural network model. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management in Haihe River Basin.

 
Jun 17th, 2:00 PM Jun 17th, 3:20 PM

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on ISPA Model under Climate Change in Haihe River Basin

Session H2: Water Resources Management and Planning - Modeling and Software for Improving Dcisions and Engaging Stakeholders

Water resource system is a complex uncertain system under climate change. To assess the water resources vulnerability rationally, an improved set pair analysis (ISPA) model, is established, in which set pair analysis theory is introduced and the weights are determined by use of the maximum entropy principle and the improved analytic hierarchy process method. And the index systems and criteria of water resources vulnerability assessment are established in this study. Uncertainties are analyzed in the assessment of water resource vulnerability by use of the ISPA model. ISPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability of seven administrative divisions in the Haihe River Basin under four kinds of future climate scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of water resource vulnerability is calculated by connection numbers in the ISPA model. Results show that ISPA model can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain knowledge, subjective and objective information compared with fuzzy assessment model and artificial neural network model. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management in Haihe River Basin.