Simulating the sensitivity of residential wildfire risk to land use policy

Session G1: Using Simulation Models to Improve Understanding of Environmental Systems

An integrated model is used to simulate the sensitivity of expected residential losses from wildfire [E(RLW)]) and growth of the wildland urban interface (WUI) to three land use policies in Flathead County, Montana, during the period 2010–2059. The model accounts for the complex socio-ecological interactions among climate change, economic growth and associated residential development, land use policy, homeowners’ wildfire loss mitigation actions, and forest treatments by various land management agencies. E(RLW) depends on the number of developed residential properties, the total value of residential properties, the probability that parcels containing residential properties burn, the conditional probability of residential wildfire losses, and the percentage of wildfire–related losses in aesthetic value for residential properties. E(RLW) is simulated for three land use policy scenarios (i.e., the county policy that existed in 2010, a moderately restrictive policy, and a highly restrictive policy), moderate economic growth, and the A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. As the land use policy becomes more restrictive compared to the 2010 policy, the amount and footprint of future residential development in the WUI decreases substantially. Relative to the 2010 land use policy, the moderately restrictive land use policy does and the highly restrictive land use policy does not significantly reduce E(RLW) in the Flathead County WUI. The methods presented here can be used to assess the extent to which more restrictive land use policies reduce residential wildfire losses or exposure to wildfire risk and identify residential areas with high wildfire risk in other WUIs.