Keywords

quantitative scenarios; energy and environment; tools and insights.

Location

Session C2: Accounting for Uncertainty in Decision Support by Treating Model Assumptions as Scenarios

Start Date

19-6-2014 9:00 AM

End Date

19-6-2014 10:20 AM

Abstract

Quantitative scenarios form the core of the future analysis in the energy, climate and other environment-related fields. A growing number of researchers worldwide start using innovative techniques for developing, analysing and choosing quantitative scenarios. Some of these techniques involve a large number of scenarios. Different rationales motivate these strands of research: better system understanding, uncertainty analysis, development of robust strategies, selection of a small set of scenarios, ability to link storylines with quantitative scenarios and other. These techniques are argued to provide both novel research insights and policy-relevant scenario exercises. A workshop, organised by UCL Energy Institute and Cired, on 26-27 March 2014 brought together the key researchers, who use such innovative techniques for developing, analysing and choosing quantitative scenarios in energy and environmental research. The workshop aimed at gathering these existing techniques into one toolbox, consolidate experiences and draw avenues for future research. This conference paper gives an overview of the workshop results. It presents and analyses innovative quantitative techniques for developing state-of-the-art research-based and highly policy-relevant scenarios.

 
Jun 19th, 9:00 AM Jun 19th, 10:20 AM

Innovative Techniques for Quantitative Scenarios in Energy and Environmental Research: a Review

Session C2: Accounting for Uncertainty in Decision Support by Treating Model Assumptions as Scenarios

Quantitative scenarios form the core of the future analysis in the energy, climate and other environment-related fields. A growing number of researchers worldwide start using innovative techniques for developing, analysing and choosing quantitative scenarios. Some of these techniques involve a large number of scenarios. Different rationales motivate these strands of research: better system understanding, uncertainty analysis, development of robust strategies, selection of a small set of scenarios, ability to link storylines with quantitative scenarios and other. These techniques are argued to provide both novel research insights and policy-relevant scenario exercises. A workshop, organised by UCL Energy Institute and Cired, on 26-27 March 2014 brought together the key researchers, who use such innovative techniques for developing, analysing and choosing quantitative scenarios in energy and environmental research. The workshop aimed at gathering these existing techniques into one toolbox, consolidate experiences and draw avenues for future research. This conference paper gives an overview of the workshop results. It presents and analyses innovative quantitative techniques for developing state-of-the-art research-based and highly policy-relevant scenarios.