Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenariosby modelling different future pathways. This study demonstrates the potential toexplore and test the understanding of land use change relations by applying spatialdata of different scales, coupled with socio-economic data. In the EU-FP7 researchproject PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), threestorylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. Thesestorylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication onland use changes were modelled via the cellular automata model LUCIA. AnEastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitanarea and its hinterland.The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets.These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation,urban density and structure, and distribution of jobs and population. Theseindicators are then incorporated in the model calculations as factors determiningurban development and localization of urban sprawl, reflecting the scenariooutlines.The results calculated from the scenarios reveal the great difference in urbandistribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus changethe shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planningstrategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reductionof transportation work and thus energy consumption. This will lead to less impacton climate from transportation based on a more optimal localization and transportinfrastructure strategy.