Dynamic Modelling of Silvopastoral Landscape Structure: Scenarios for Future Climate and Land Use

Pasture-woodland landscapes result from a long history ofsilvopastoralism in mountain regions and provide valuable ecosystem services.They include a mosaic of grasslands, forests and wood-pastures, which is theheritage of a multipurpose management in the variable socio-economic andbiophysical context of the last millennium. In the perspective of ongoing climateand land-use changes, it is crucial to assess the resilience and the adaptivecapacity of such socio-ecological systems at different spatial and temporal scales.For this purpose, we developed a hierarchical, process-based, dynamic model,WoodPaM, and we simulated six scenarios of climate change and management ina real landscape of the Swiss Jura Mountains. Realistic climatic scenarios for thenext century are likely to provoke critical changes in vegetation structure andcomposition, leading to a breakdown of resilience. This is due to the predicted fastdecline of present dominant tree species, which will be slowly replaced by moreadapted species. Assisted migration could reduce the risk of temporary forestbreakdown, as suggested by simulations with enhanced immigration rate duringthe warming period. Logging could lead to landscape simplification or introduceshifting mosaic cycles depending on warming intensity. Active adaptivemanagement involving modellers and stakeholders is a promising strategy to facesuch future changes.