Integration of Climate Change Effects in Local Models and Urban Planning Processes

Results from global and regional climate scenario modelling predict significant changes in temperature and precipitation during the rest of the century [Kjellström et al. 2011]. Episodes of extremely high temperatures and more intense rainfall will occur more often [IPCC 2011]. Climate change will affect the urban environment and should be taken into account in long term and sustainable urban planning for adaptation to the new climate conditions. The spatial and temporal resolution of available climate models, however, is generally too low for the output to be used directly in urban planning and as input to local models. We will address several problems that need to be solved: How can the downscaled climate data be used to assess different environmental risks linked to the urban infrastructure and the health and safety of the population? How can the downscaling be designed so that it suits a larger community, including all municipalities in Europe? How can the necessary functionalities and data be provided in an interoperable and transferable way in order to be applicable for a wide range of issues? How can we technically support the integration of climate change related environmental data into local models? Within the FP7 ICT SUDPLAN project, which integrates environmental modelling and software expertise, a system of standardised services and end user applications have been developed. The system delivers long term projections of environmental data for different aspects of local modelling (air quality, hydrological conditions and intense rainfall) based on different climate scenarios. The services are interactive and require local data to improve the downscaled projections. This downscaling is necessary in order to transform the European scale information to a realistic input signal to local models. All services are provided through standardized service interfaces.