Modelling and Simulating Social Vulnerability under the Influence of Climate Change in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru)

The objective of this research is to develop and simulate a model of theecosocial concept of populations’ vulnerability under the impact of environmentalchange in the Peruvian Cordillera Blanca, through a social vulnerability indicator.Numerous studies provide evidence for the impact of climate change on nature,water scarcity, and social problems; people living near glaciers are particularlyaffected by these natural hazards. The Peruvian Cordillera Blanca, an area withone fourth of the world’s tropical glaciers and its population are highly at risk. Theapplications of fuzzy algorithms to research works in this area, and even more tosocial and ecological aspects, is a new approach to this field of research. It can beused to model the behavior of any population in a specified area under similarcircumstances. In this paper, we use the ecosocial concept of Vulnerability toanalyze the process of man-environment relationship in a comprehensivemultidimensional model. Regarding the social dimension we aim to improve thequality of life for peasant populations close to glaciers. At the same time, withrespect to an environmental scope, the work with and the relationships between allthe actors in this human-environmental system is of great importance in order toachieve massive participation in finding the most shared solution. Finally, ourscientific contribution is the use of system theory, fuzzy dynamics system and datamining to build a social vulnerability indicator and its development in a climatechange process.