Keywords

agent-based modelling, climate change, adaptation, agro-environmental policy

Start Date

1-7-2012 12:00 AM

Description

We present an agent-based model of climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector of the Central Swabian Alps, a mountainous area in South Western Germany. Apart from climate effects on crop yields, the model also captures effects on crop rotation options, available time for fieldwork and exogenous price effects as potential pathways of climate change impact. First results underline the capacity of the model to simulate short-term adaptation and point to the importance of capturing future price developments to predict land-use effects of adaptation. For full dynamic simulations of the process of adaptation, the model will be extended with realistic learning algorithms and a land market module.

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Jul 1st, 12:00 AM

Agent-based modeling of agricultural adaptation to climate change in a mountainous area of Southwest Germany

We present an agent-based model of climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector of the Central Swabian Alps, a mountainous area in South Western Germany. Apart from climate effects on crop yields, the model also captures effects on crop rotation options, available time for fieldwork and exogenous price effects as potential pathways of climate change impact. First results underline the capacity of the model to simulate short-term adaptation and point to the importance of capturing future price developments to predict land-use effects of adaptation. For full dynamic simulations of the process of adaptation, the model will be extended with realistic learning algorithms and a land market module.