From prediction to learning: the implications of changing the purpose of the modelling activity

During the last decades, there has been a growing interest in the use of models for natural resource management. While early models were theoretical representations of simple systems designed to predict, in time or space, the behaviour of a system, current modelling applications expand beyond prediction. Models, and particularly the whole model building process, have become useful tools to support dialogue, learning and negotiation processes in stakeholders groups. For example, models are currently being used to improve collaboration between expert and stakeholder groups, to facilitate the negotiation between conflicting parties, or as a tool for group reflection, just to mention few of a wide-ranging list of applications. Such a broadened scope in the use of models not only has implications for how models are applied, but also for how the modelling activity is addressed and the type of conclusions that can be drawn from a modelling exercise. It is well known that, the information requirements, the degree of involvement of stakeholders and the type of model evaluation performed, mostly depend on the reason for which a model is developed, despite the modeller’s preferences for a particular modelling approach. This paper examines how participatory modelling building affects the modelling practice, specifically focusing on the implications to cope with model uncertainty. A set of strategies to guide the development of participatory models is presented.