Presenter/Author Information

Gleb Alexandrov

Start Date

1-7-2010 12:00 AM

Description

Sustainability of a pathway for world development is currently appraised on the basis of CO2 emissions presumed by the pathway. Numerous scenarios of emissions growth presume that it cannot grow infinitely: there are certain limits that may not or must not be exceeded. The purpose of my work is to develop a model for analyzing the limits to CO2 emissions growth and to consider how they may change in the future. Applying the theory of pulsing logistic growth, I assume that CO2 emissions grow in agreement with the logistic equation where carrying capacity, K (or limit to growth) is a function of time, K(t). In the classic theory of pulsing logistic growth K (t) is supposed to be a stepwise function. In contrast, I suppose that it should be a continuous function and derive it from observations. In order to find changing limits to growth (that is, K(t)), I solve inverse Cauchy problem. Results allow us to detect two pulses of logistic growth. The first pulse culminated in 1930s. The second pulse recently entered the culmination phase. Unexpected acceleration of emissions growth observed in 2000-2004 may indicate to the start of the third pulse, which carrying capacity is even higher. Obviously, constructing a scenario of emissions growth one should pay attention to the fact that limits to their growth does not remain constant. They were and would be changing because of technological advances. Software, developed in course of this study, open wide opportunity for using the theory of pulsing growth in evaluating scenarios of CO2 emissions growth.

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Jul 1st, 12:00 AM

Developing a model for detecting growth pulses in the observations and scenarios of CO2 emissions

Sustainability of a pathway for world development is currently appraised on the basis of CO2 emissions presumed by the pathway. Numerous scenarios of emissions growth presume that it cannot grow infinitely: there are certain limits that may not or must not be exceeded. The purpose of my work is to develop a model for analyzing the limits to CO2 emissions growth and to consider how they may change in the future. Applying the theory of pulsing logistic growth, I assume that CO2 emissions grow in agreement with the logistic equation where carrying capacity, K (or limit to growth) is a function of time, K(t). In the classic theory of pulsing logistic growth K (t) is supposed to be a stepwise function. In contrast, I suppose that it should be a continuous function and derive it from observations. In order to find changing limits to growth (that is, K(t)), I solve inverse Cauchy problem. Results allow us to detect two pulses of logistic growth. The first pulse culminated in 1930s. The second pulse recently entered the culmination phase. Unexpected acceleration of emissions growth observed in 2000-2004 may indicate to the start of the third pulse, which carrying capacity is even higher. Obviously, constructing a scenario of emissions growth one should pay attention to the fact that limits to their growth does not remain constant. They were and would be changing because of technological advances. Software, developed in course of this study, open wide opportunity for using the theory of pulsing growth in evaluating scenarios of CO2 emissions growth.