Keywords

agri-environmental incentives, model predictive control, agent-based models of land use/cover change, metacommunity models, biodiversity

Start Date

1-7-2010 12:00 AM

Description

This paper reports work using a coupled agent-based model of land use changeand species metacommunity model (FEARLUS-SPOMM) to explore biodiversity incentivemechanisms using adaptive control algorithms. Existing work at the LancasterEnvironment Centre has shown that such algorithms can help in analysing the adaptivecapabilities of climate-related policy interventions under uncertainty. In particular,feedback control is a practical approach that mimics many recognisable features of adaptivedecision making processes, including the sequential review of models and policies in thelight of new observations. In a companion paper, we show that FEARLUS-SPOMM showsnonlinear dynamics in the relationship between agricultural incentives and biodiversityoutcome. In this pilot study, we show that the sequential review implicit in feedbackcontrol allows information about unforeseen events to be assimilated such that biodiversitycan be maintained at a desired level by adaptively adjusting agricultural incentives. Wealso find that Simon’s ‘satisficing’ has its limitations in the representation of humandecision making.

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Jul 1st, 12:00 AM

Towards Adaptive Control of Landscape Biodiversity

This paper reports work using a coupled agent-based model of land use changeand species metacommunity model (FEARLUS-SPOMM) to explore biodiversity incentivemechanisms using adaptive control algorithms. Existing work at the LancasterEnvironment Centre has shown that such algorithms can help in analysing the adaptivecapabilities of climate-related policy interventions under uncertainty. In particular,feedback control is a practical approach that mimics many recognisable features of adaptivedecision making processes, including the sequential review of models and policies in thelight of new observations. In a companion paper, we show that FEARLUS-SPOMM showsnonlinear dynamics in the relationship between agricultural incentives and biodiversityoutcome. In this pilot study, we show that the sequential review implicit in feedbackcontrol allows information about unforeseen events to be assimilated such that biodiversitycan be maintained at a desired level by adaptively adjusting agricultural incentives. Wealso find that Simon’s ‘satisficing’ has its limitations in the representation of humandecision making.