Simulation and scenarios of a social science concept on urban shrinkage

In our paper the hypothesis is tested whether current demographic decline, de-economisation and structural crisis are bringing about a new evolving type of urban development. In doing so, we present a novel social science concept of urban shrinkage that goes beyond the focussed population-related view of shrinkage (Kabisch et al., 2006). It rather comprises the features of non-growth, on-going sprawl and upcoming reurbanisation alike, or if reurbanisation represents, on the other hand, merely a short interplay in a long-term period of desurbanisation under the condition of demographic change and decrease in population: the core city is gradually shrinking because of demographic decline.