Presenter/Author Information

Petra Döll
Christiane Doll
Alexandra Titz

Keywords

actor, agent-based modelling, integrated assessment, modeling, perception graph, scenarios

Start Date

1-7-2008 12:00 AM

Description

The future of natural resources depends on the actions of people. Thus, whenever assessing options for a sustainable management of natural resources, it may not good enough to provide decision makers with a decision support system that integrates the technical and natural system components only. To include the human system component, it is state-ofthe- art to — in addition to demographic modeling and economic optimization — consider human actions in storylines of qualitative scenarios, which are then translated ad-hoc into quantitative scenarios of input variables of models of the technical and natural systems components. We propose modeling of societal actors and actor-based modeling of physical variables (AM) as science-based and transparent methods for analyzing the human system component and for, in addition, quantifying input to environmental systems models. AM is particularly useful for problems fields where little knowledge is available and where a large number of actors with different values and goals have to cooperate to obtain a sustainable outcome. Actor-based modeling can be regarded as a type of agent-based modeling where the actions of the actors are determined from complex actor-specific perceptions graphs which are the core of actor modeling.

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Jul 1st, 12:00 AM

Actor Modeling and Actor-based Modeling: New Methods to Analyze the Human Component of Human-Environment Systems

The future of natural resources depends on the actions of people. Thus, whenever assessing options for a sustainable management of natural resources, it may not good enough to provide decision makers with a decision support system that integrates the technical and natural system components only. To include the human system component, it is state-ofthe- art to — in addition to demographic modeling and economic optimization — consider human actions in storylines of qualitative scenarios, which are then translated ad-hoc into quantitative scenarios of input variables of models of the technical and natural systems components. We propose modeling of societal actors and actor-based modeling of physical variables (AM) as science-based and transparent methods for analyzing the human system component and for, in addition, quantifying input to environmental systems models. AM is particularly useful for problems fields where little knowledge is available and where a large number of actors with different values and goals have to cooperate to obtain a sustainable outcome. Actor-based modeling can be regarded as a type of agent-based modeling where the actions of the actors are determined from complex actor-specific perceptions graphs which are the core of actor modeling.