Modeling short-term epidemics and intervention strategies in cities

Individual-based model (IBM) for simulation of urban influenza epidemic is constructed. In comparison with the past similar models the proposed model has new features: 1)it bases on a real demographical and social infrastructure statistical data; 2)its contacts network is built up with the help of daily routines of different age and social groups of residents. Test simulations were carried out with the use of demographical data on the population of Dresden (Germany). The results obtained showed that the proposed model can be used for the simulation of different epidemics and intervention strategies to contain epidemic or to weaken its consequences.