Linking Hydrologic Modeling and Ecologic Modeling: An Application of Adaptive Ecosystem Management in the Everglades Mangrove Zone of Florida Bay

The Across Trophic Levels System Simulator (ATLSS) is a suite of ecological models designed to assess the impact of changes in hydrology on biotic components of the southern Florida ecosystem. ATLSS implements a multimodeling approach that utilizes process models for lower trophic levels, structured population models for middle trophic levels (fish and macroinvertebrates), and individual-based models for large consumers. ATLSS requires hydrologic input to assess the effects of alternative proposed restoration scenarios on trophic structure. An ATLSS model (ALFISH) for functional fish groups in freshwater marshes in the Everglades of southern Florida has been extended to create a new model (ALFISHES) to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of fish density in the resident fish community of the Everglades mangrove zone of Florida Bay. The ALFISHES model combines field data assessing the impact of salinity on fish biomass with hydrologic data from the Southern Inland and Coastal System (SICS) model. The estuarine landscape is represented by a grid of 500 × 500-meter cells across the coastal areas of the Florida Bay. Each cell is divided into two habitat types; flats, which are flooded during the wet season, and creeks, which remain wet and serve as refugia during the dry season. Daily predictions of water level and salinity are obtained from the SICS model output, which is resampled at the 500-meter spatial resolution of the ALFISHES model. The model output may be used to assess the impact of changes in hydrology on fish biomass and its availability to wading bird and other consumer populations. With the development of restoration scenario capabilities in the SICS model, the SICS/ALFISHES coupling should prove an effective tool for evaluating the potential impact of water management policies on the wading bird population in the Everglades mangrove zone.