An Adaptive Framework for Ecological Assessment and Management

In this paper, we present a conceptual framework for integrating ecological models into a process for management of complex ecological systems. This conceptual framework, that we call Adaptive Ecological Risk Analysis, is an iterative process based upon ecological modeling, the development and implementation of management alternatives, and the evaluation of their effectiveness. Adaptive Ecological Risk Analysis depends heavily on the use of ecological models to perform both prospective and retrospective risk assessments and to analyze the outcomes of alternative management strategies. In order to illustrate the use of Adaptive Ecological Risk Analysis, we use the AQUATOX simulation model to examine the relative risks to the bass population of Coralville Reservoir in Iowa from the pesticide dieldrin. The objective of maintaining a viable recreational bass fishery will be used to evaluate alternative strategies for reducing risks to the bass population. The model is used to quantify the potential effectiveness of these alternative management strategies and to provide feedback for policy refinements.